Today (Jan 9, 2026), the U.S. Supreme Court is set to deliver a ruling that could send shockwaves through global markets. At stake is President Trump’s authority to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) without Congress’s sign-off. ⚖️
Why it matters: If the justices strike down these emergency tariffs, the federal government could face massive refund bills — a move that analysts warn would pull liquidity from the system and push Treasury yields higher, sparking new waves of volatility in equities. 📉
Market Mood Swings
Back in April of last year, when tariffs first landed, the S&P 500 dropped nearly 5% and yields tumbled as investors rushed to safe havens. Since then, stocks rallied impressively, up over 16% in 2025, hitting fresh highs. But today’s decision could flip the script:
- If tariffs are overturned: Importers might see $150–$200 billion in refunds, giving stocks — especially retail, consumer goods, and electronics — a potential boost. 🚀
- If tariffs stand: Uncertainty could linger, keeping investors on edge and markets choppy.
Investor Strategies
Some fund managers are already placing bets on small-cap stocks, banking on the Federal Reserve’s steady hand and possible tariff relief to fuel growth. "It would be like putting rocket fuel on a fire," says Eddie Ghabour of KEY Advisors. 🔥
Others caution that any rally may be short-lived if the administration pursues alternative legal paths to bring back similar levies by year’s end. "In the short term, this will be noise," notes John Pantakidis of Twin Focus Capital.
What’s Next?
Whichever way the Supreme Court rules, markets are bracing for a bumpy ride. A judgment against the administration could mean refund headaches and higher borrowing costs, while an upheld ruling may leave uncertainty unresolved. Either scenario underscores the high stakes in the tug-of-war over executive power and trade policy. 🌪️
Stay tuned: today’s decision marks the first major check on Trump’s expanded executive authority since his return to the White House, and its ripple effects will shape U.S. tariff policy for months to come.
Reference(s):
Market risk mounts as Supreme Court weighs Trump's tariff powers
cgtn.com
