Japan’s parliament will hold a vote on October 21 to pick a new prime minister. With outgoing leader Shigeru Ishiba stepping down, all eyes are on the newly elected LDP leader, Sanae Takaichi. 🤔 Can she secure the job in time?
Political Maneuvers 🔍
Takaichi won the LDP presidency on October 4, but the path to the top spot isn’t guaranteed. The long-time coalition partner, Komeito, withdrew from the ruling bloc, leaving the LDP vulnerable. Opposition parties have been in talks, hoping to unite behind a single candidate to block her bid.
Leaders from the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, the Democratic Party for the People and the Japan Innovation Party met this week. They hold a significant number of seats and could sway the vote. However, they failed to agree on joint policies, keeping Takaichi in the running.
Meanwhile, the Japan Innovation Party has been in separate talks with the LDP. Co-leader Fumitake Fujita said discussions have “moved forward considerably,” and they plan to finalize cooperation. This deal could tip the scales in favor of Takaichi, though some policy gaps remain.
Key Uncertainties 🌐
Even with Innovation Party backing, Takaichi faces hurdles. The two parties have aligned on big-ticket items like constitutional amendments and national security but disagree on issues such as tax policy and political funding. Osaka Governor Hirofumi Yoshimura of the Innovation Party has insisted on firm commitments to cut parliamentary seats, calling it “nonnegotiable.”
Former diplomat Kazuhiko Togo warns that money in politics and public trust are at stake. He says Japan needs a strong leader to restore stability and avoid the “revolving-door” era of frequent prime minister changes.
Three Possible Outcomes
- LDP plus Innovation Party coalition elects Takaichi but faces a minority government.
- LDP governs alone if the opposition cannot unite, securing a majority vote.
- A rare win for a united opposition, though policy clashes could weaken the government.
The parliamentary vote next week will decide if Japan gets its first female prime minister or continues the familiar cycle of power struggles. Stay tuned! 👀
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Explainer: Can LDP leader Takaichi become Japan's prime minister?
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