Late last year, following the largest-ever U.S. arms sale to Taiwan, the PLA kicked off Justice Mission 2025—its most advanced joint military drills around the island. The move has sparked a debate: is this a calibrated message of deterrence or a risky escalation in cross-strait ties? 🤔
To unpack these questions, a recent roundtable brought together military and policy experts:
- Huang Jiefang, Chair Professor at Wuhan University
- Zhou Gengsheng, Secretary-General of the Asian Academy of International Law
- Shao Yuqun, Director of the Institute for Taiwan, Hong Kong & Macao Studies at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies
- Einar Tangen, Senior Fellow at the Center for International Governance Innovation and Chairman of Asia Narratives Substack
Huang Jiefang drew parallels between these exercises and past drills, arguing that the PLA is carefully calibrating its show of force. Huang said: 'This isn't about making headlines. It's a signal to foreign powers that the Chinese mainland takes cross-strait security seriously.' 🔍
By contrast, Zhou Gengsheng warned that while the drills may aim for deterrence, they risk spiraling into dangerous escalation. He pointed out that such large-scale operations near the Taiwan Strait could heighten anxiety among residents of Taiwan and abroad. 🌊
Shao Yuqun questioned whether the Chinese mainland is shifting away from its long-touted path of peaceful development. In his view, Justice Mission 2025 marks a turning point in the mainland's defense posture—a move that could redefine cross-strait ties if not carefully managed.
Adding an international angle, Einar Tangen examined the U.S. role. He noted that record arms sales to Taiwan under President Trump's policy have complicated the security landscape. Tangen observed: 'The combination of U.S. weapons and PLA drills creates a tense see-saw.' ⚖️
As the dust settles on Justice Mission 2025, the big question remains: are these drills a healthy dose of deterrence or a step toward dangerous brinksmanship? 🤔 Only time will tell if this is a strategic message or a challenge that could reshape regional stability.
Stay tuned for more updates on cross-strait ties and regional security! 🌏
Reference(s):
cgtn.com
