🌡️✨ A groundbreaking study by Chinese and U.S. researchers has found that human-induced climate change is actually making extreme cold events less severe. While intense cold waves still make an appearance, their intensity and frequency have significantly dwindled due to global warming. This challenges the common belief that climate change might lead to harsher winters.
Published in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, the study was a collaboration between the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, and the University at Albany – State University of New York.
Focusing on the severe cold wave that hit eastern China in December 2023, researchers discovered that unusual large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns were the main culprits, responsible for 83% of the event's intensity. However, the warming influence of climate change softened its blow by up to 22%.
\"Our findings confirm that human-induced climate change is actually weakening extreme cold events,\" said Qian Cheng, a professor at the IAP.
The study highlights that anthropogenic warming has slashed the likelihood and intensity of similar cold waves by over 92% and 1.9°C, respectively, compared to a world without human influence. Looking ahead, such events are expected to become even rarer and milder by the end of the century, with frequency decreasing by 95% and intensity dropping by more than 2°C under an intermediate-emissions scenario.
Despite these trends, the study cautions that extreme cold events won't vanish entirely. \"If carbon neutrality is achieved and global warming stabilizes at 1.5 degrees Celsius, we could still see cold extremes similar to those today,\" Qian added. \"That means societies must remain prepared for sudden cold snaps, even if the 1.5-degree target of the Paris Agreement is met.\"
These findings underscore the importance of developing adaptive strategies to mitigate the impacts of extreme cold events, ensuring communities remain resilient in the face of changing climate dynamics.
Reference(s):
Climate change is weakening extreme cold events, study finds
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