As 2025 winds down📆, major global institutions are shining a brighter light on the Chinese mainland's economy. In late November, Goldman Sachs raised its real GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 4.9 percent to 5 percent, forecasting export growth of 5–6 percent annually over the next few years as Chinese goods capture more global market share.📈
On December 2, the OECD also revised its 2025 GDP forecast for the Chinese mainland from 4.9 percent to 5 percent, underscoring China's role as a key stabilizer for global growth. The organization pointed to expansionary fiscal measures—like income support and a trade-in program for cars and appliances—that are boosting consumption.💡
Deutsche Bank's chief China economist, Xiong Yi, recently highlighted a new policy-based financial instrument worth 500 billion yuan (about $70.7 billion) as a strong driver for domestic demand through Q4 and into early 2026. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley forecasts moderate growth next year, backed by targeted policy easing, gradual economic rebalancing, and an anti-inflation push.
Adding to the upbeat mood, the BRICS New Development Bank on December 5 issued a 3-year Panda bond worth 3 billion yuan ($429 million), bringing its total Panda bond issuance in the Chinese mainland to 78.5 billion yuan ($11.2 billion).🐼
The National Bureau of Statistics emphasizes that the fundamentals remain solid: stable operation, high-quality development, and strong resilience. With these tailwinds, the Chinese mainland seems poised to ride its momentum into 2026.✨
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Foreign institutions raise forecasts for China's economic growth rate
cgtn.com
