In a bold move aimed at seizing market share, eight OPEC+ countries – including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and the UAE – have agreed to boost oil production by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July. This marks the third consecutive monthly production hike, as the group continues its strategy of prioritizing volume over price.
The production increase is part of a broader plan that began with gradually unwinding 2.2 million bpd of voluntary cuts starting in April 2025. So far, the total output boost has reached 1.37 million bpd, equating to 62% of the planned return. With a steady global economic outlook and healthy market fundamentals such as low oil inventories, the decision reflects confidence in a recovering market.
However, market watchers are raising eyebrows. Some analysts warn that this move could exert additional downward pressure on crude prices – which hit a four-year low below $60 per barrel in April – challenging producers worldwide. As one analyst quipped, "Today's decision only goes to show that market share is on top of the agenda. If price will not get you the revenues you want, they are hoping that volume will."
While the increased supply could benefit the group’s overall influence in the global energy landscape, it poses fresh challenges for US shale producers, who have seen rising production costs. According to a recent survey, shale producers now require an average oil price of $65 per barrel to maintain profitable drilling.
This strategic bet on volume reflects a dynamic shift in the oil market, where the race for market share could redefine revenue models and reshape global energy dynamics. Stay tuned as the changes continue to unfold in this high-stakes market!
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OPEC+ to hike oil production in July, prioritizing market share
cgtn.com
