The Russia-Ukraine conflict, now spanning three years, has been a game-changer for the global political and economic landscapes. Often dubbed the most severe geopolitical crisis of the 21st century, this ongoing conflict has sent shockwaves through commodity prices and trade patterns worldwide.
📉 In 2022, the year the conflict ignited, major global commodity prices experienced wild fluctuations—some soaring over 150%, especially in sectors like potassium chloride fertilizer. Studies show a strong link between the intensity of the conflict and these price changes.
🔍 From February 24, 2022, to March 30, 2024, each military escalation resulted in a 7.5% increase in natural gas prices across Europe and around a 2% rise in global oil and wheat prices. However, as the conflict drags on, the market's initial sensitivity has begun to wane, leading to a gradual decrease in commodity price volatility. 🚀
Despite the cooling sensitivity, prices for major commodities remain high compared to pre-conflict levels, reflecting the prolonged uncertainty and ongoing tensions. As the world navigates this complex situation, businesses and consumers alike are keeping a close eye on how these dynamics will continue to evolve.
Reference(s):
Russia-Ukraine conflict: Transforming global commodity trade dynamics
cgtn.com
